Bob Beck's Foreign Policy Blog

This is the third article in a series on key foreign policy challenges for the next U.S. president. The series will continue between now and the elections on 5 November. 

In his influential 1992 work – The End of History and the Last Man, on the logical progression of social and governmental structures to the gold standard of liberal democracy, Francis Fukuyama implied that the “end of history” was at hand with the victory of western-style democracy. As the Cold War ended in 1991, many in the west, particularly in the United States, accepted the notion that major, great power conflict was a brutal memory of the globe’s troubled past.  While we chose to look forward and dismiss the criticality of history in international relations, Vladimir Putin was planning the return of history, the first act of which is playing out tragically in Ukraine. 

What, then, does the resurgence of a bitter, emboldened, neo-imperialist Moscow mean for the next U.S. president?  First and foremost, it poses a direct and urgent threat to our closest allies on the western end of the Eurasian landmass.  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union (EU) member states constitute some of this country’s most enduring and like-minded friends on the global stage, including Great Britain, France, the Baltic States, and the recently re-liberated nations of Central Europe.  These nations, though at times at odds with Washington on certain issues, share our basic values regarding individual rights, core freedoms of press, religion, and assembly, free market economics, and participatory democracy. In a world of increasing autocratic governance, our brethren in NATO and the EU are force-multipliers for American power.

There are those in the apologist camp that claim NATO should not have expanded after the Cold War to include much of Central Europe. This argument carries no weight, however, in the historic capitals of the region – Warsaw, Prague, and Bucharest, where the citizenry share dreadful memories of Russia’s suffocating suzerainty following World War II.  It is exactly because of what is happening now in Ukraine that these countries made a beeline for NATO.  Students of history, they knew that Moscow would eventually turn its rapacious eyes to the west to again threaten the region. 

Barring a resounding defeat in Ukraine, which does not seem likely at present, Russia will continue to spread instability and insecurity across the central part of the European peninsula.  The Kremlin can be expected to repeatedly probe for western weakness, looking to radiate malign influence through disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and hybrid warfare to support its revanchist goals. President Biden’s successor will, therefore, be tasked with countering Moscow’s aggressive designs, or be prepared to live with the consequences.  

While many would discount the oft-noted comparison between Russia’s current belligerence in Ukraine with Hitler’s incremental aggression in 1930s Europe, this author does believe that there are dangerous parallels between the two periods.  Given that American isolationism nearly ninety years ago ended in a world war, the new White House occupant would be wise to avoid a replay of that scenario. 

Though the Russian threat to U.S. interests is most salient in Europe, Moscow is also fomenting mischief in other parts of the world of import to Washington.  Over the course of the last decade, Putin’s mercenaries have gradually changed the power equation across a significant swath of Africa, especially in the Sahel region. American and French counter-terrorism forces have been unceremoniously replaced by Russian troops – remnants of Wagner Group forces now renamed the “Africa Corps,” who are simultaneously tasked with establishing Moscow’s control over the region’s vast mineral wealth in gold, oil, and uranium. Furthermore, the Kremlin aims to curry favor on a continent that has the fastest growing population in the world, which will likely translate in the years to come into expanded political power on the world stage. 

Lastly, lest we forget, Russia is a founding member of journalist Anne Applebaum’s aptly-named “Autocracy Inc.,” unabashedly pushing for an overhaul of the western-implemented international system that has brought unparalleled levels of economic development since the end of WWII.  

The challenges posed by Moscow’s senior partner in the global group of autocratic powers, China, will be the subject of the next article in this series. 

Note: This article has been submitted to both the Monadnock Ledger-Transcript and the Brattleboro Reformer for possible publication.