Bob Beck's Foreign Policy Blog

Now that the dust has settled from the general elections with the Glover Cleveland-like return of former President Trump to the White House, we can step back and ponder what this dramatic shift in America’s leadership means for our place in the world.  While much will be written in the coming two months about border security, forced deportations, and the economy, the actions and policies of the incoming administration on foreign policy challenges will provide illuminating insight into President-elect Trump’s priorities. 

One of the initial indicators on how Trump 2.0 plans to engage abroad will be who he selects for his senior foreign policy advisors, specifically Secretaries of State and Defense, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and National Security Advisor.  The more experience those advisors have in the foreign policy realm, the more guarded United States policy is likely to be, in spite of at times inflammatory campaign rhetoric. Conversely, the more radical and extreme the choices for those key positions, the less predictable, and potentially more disruptive, our engagement with allies and adversaries will be. 

Once in office, Trump 2.0’s actions (or potentially lack thereof) on the Ukraine crisis will offer another bellwether of the new administration’s focus on the international stage.  Should the new occupant of the White House cut off U.S. aid to Kyiv, in effect forcing President Zelensky to the negotiating table, the geopolitical shockwaves of that decision will engender strategic angst and possibly political instability amongst heretofore American allies across the globe. On the flip side, if the administration stays the course in supporting Ukraine, America’s adversaries will be less inclined in the near to mid-term to test Washington’s resolve. 

How President Trump deals with the on-going crisis in the Middle East will present another harbinger of his international goals.  Should he use the current instability to build on the success of the Abraham Accords from his first term and push for a grand bargain between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinians, he would potentially reap untold benefits as a peacemaker.  However, if he disengages to allow the current conflagration to run its course, his administration will almost certainly at some point in the future be dragged back into the region by a wider war, potentially with nuclear-armed combatants.

China is another persistent hotspot. On the campaign trail the candidate was very clear about his intention to immediately implement an across-the-board 60% (at least) tariff on all imports from China.  He has also proposed tariffs of 10-20% for imports from other countries, including our European allies. Should he keep these promises, and this observer has no reason to doubt his word on this issue, American consumers will pay considerably more for many products.  The tariffs would undoubtedly hurt the Chinese economy as well, inflaming nationalism in the Middle Kingdom, strengthening China’s outreach to other autocratic regimes, and hastening Beijing’s efforts to develop new markets for their goods across the global south. 

On the homefront, the president-elect has made it clear that he intends to reinstate the Schedule F provisions in the federal workforce in an effort to gain more control over what he calls “the deep state.”  Should he be successful in this endeavor, particularly in the bureaucracies (State, Defense, intelligence community) that represent the government’s collective foreign policy knowledge base, the efficacy of the systemic guardrails that have mitigated the worst foreign policy intentions of previous presidents from both parties will be greatly reduced. 

Thus, as the new administration takes the reins of power, their words and actions on the above issues will serve as an edifying prelude to Trump 2.0’s foreign policy. Fasten your seatbelts as it promises to be a bumpy ride. 

This article was publish by both the Monadnock Ledger-Transcript and the Brattleboro Reformer on 12 November 2024.