Bob Beck's Foreign Policy Blog

The South Korean president, frustrated by an obstreperous, opposition-led legislature, declares martial law in an almost keystone-cops like attempt at dictatorial rule. The attempt falls apart immediately, resulting in nationwide demonstrations and the impeachment of the would-be tyrant. 

Meanwhile, in Romania, a key member of both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) and a critical front line state in the Ukraine saga, authorities annulled the results of the first round of presidential elections due to “foreign interference.”  The beneficiary of the Russian malign influence was a little-known pro-Moscow candidate, Calin Georescu, who shot to the lead on the wings of a last minute, Kremlin-financed, TikTok campaign. 

Both of the above dramas occurred in December of 2024, highlighting a fascinating year in the ongoing Democracy vs Autocracy narrative which continues to characterize the geopolitical domain.  So how did our putative favorite form of governance, democracy, fare in 2024?  Let’s take a quick trip around the globe to discern the answer to that question.

Starting in Asia, the largest democracy in the world, India, carried out logistically complex general elections in the spring in which nearly 70% of eligible citizens participated, totaling 642 million voters (note: America’s current population is 340 million), almost half of which were women.  The ruling BJP party of Prime Minister Narenda Modi, came first in the plebiscite but with a much smaller majority than in the past, forcing the party into a coalition government.  Thus, the electoral backlash against Modi, who has been previously tainted with autocratic designs for the country, represents a clear positive for the power of free and fair elections. 

On the flip side, North Korea, a veritable poster country for extreme autocracy, became an active participant in Moscow’s attempt to militarily smother the democratic embers in Ukraine, sending thousands of soldiers to the battlefields of Eastern Europe as de facto mercenaries.  This signifies a dangerous expansion of the war and underscores worrying collaboration within the despotic dream team. 

Moving on to Africa, the fastest growing continent from a population standpoint, democracy acquitted itself surprisingly well.  While some 2024 elections were the subject of protests – violently in Mozambique and procedurally in Namibia, opposition parties made significant gains across Africa. In Senegal and Ghana in West Africa and Botswana to the south incumbent parties were peacefully swept from power.  In South Africa, the leftist African National Congress lost their outright majority and is now governing, so far successfully, in a coalition with a white-led centrist party, the Democratic Alliance.

Further north, across the Sahel region, democracy continues to struggle as military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger cling to power. At the eastern end of the Sahel, Sudan remains a cancerous growth on the African body politic, featuring a genocidal civil war fueled by Mephistophelian war lords. 

North of the Mediterranean, the scorecard was somewhat mixed with Europe facing, and mostly passing, a series of challenges to democracy’s reign. In addition to the aforementioned Russian attempt to influence Romania’s recent presidential poll, Moscow played an exceedingly malign part in political developments in the autumn in Moldova.  The Russians blatantly paid for votes for a pro-Kremlin presidential candidate as well as to reject a referendum enshrining in the country’s constitution the goal of EU membership.  While the tactics failed on both counts, the experience left Moldova weakened by dangerous political divisions. 

Political drama played out as well in both France and Germany, the undisputed leaders of the common european project.  Each country saw their governments suffer parliamentary votes of no confidence due to visceral disagreements on their respective national budgets for 2025.  In the former, a weakened President Macron was recently forced to name another prime minister, the third to take up the position this year, to steer the country out of its current upheaval. Germany, meanwhile, will head to early elections in February of 2025 to attempt to break its political impasse. It is worth noting, however, that as France and Germany navigate these political minefields, both countries are assiduously paying fealty to democratic norms.  

On this side of the Atlantic, Venezuela solidified its reputation as the  autocratic black sheep of the hemisphere following an election widely viewed as fraudulent.  Mexico confronted high levels of violence in the lead up to that country’s polls which, for a change, elected the country’s first female president. 

The largest test for democracy in the Americas, however, transpired in the United States.  Despite much preliminary gnashing of teeth about the potential for widespread political violence, this simply did not materialize.  Trump’s convincing victory in the November elections reflected the will of the majority of the electorate, likely setting the country on a markedly different path both domestically and internationally than that tread by the outgoing administration. How the new administration pursues its policies within (or outside of) the constraints of America’s constitutional checks and balances will undoubtedly merit consideration in next year’s iteration of this year-end democracy review.  

Nonetheless, in deference to soccer, the world’s game, this observer concludes that in 2024 the institution of democracy held its own for a respectable draw with the forces of dictatorial governance.

Note: This article was submitted to both the Monadnock Ledger-Transcript and the Brattleboro Reformer on 26 December for consideration.