Bob Beck's Foreign Policy Blog

Listening to the recent comments of Donald Trump, one could assume that America’s most pressing foreign policy challenges reside in our geographic neighborhood. Canada as our 51st state, the “Gulf of America”, taking over Greenland, and China’s designs on the Panama Canal have been repeatedly highlighted by the incoming commander in chief.

While the president-elect may actually view these issues as critical for U.S. national security, his national security team is likely focused on the foreign threats to this country that are important. Giving the new president the benefit of doubt, it is possible that his oratory is designed to divert attention, giving his new team top cover to prepare for the real international tasks at hand. Once the obfuscatory fog of Trumpian rhetoric clears, America will still face the following.

Containing Russian revanchism: During the presidential campaign, Trump correctly characterized the Russia/Ukraine war as a disaster that needs to stop. He also claimed that he could resolve the crisis in 24 hours. Convincing the American public that his goal is realistic is one thing, getting Tsar Vladimir (I want to be) the great and Ukraine’s President Zelensky to quickly resolve three years of bloodshed will be a test of an altogether different magnitude. Nevertheless, it is in America’s interest to press for a cessation of hostilities that guarantees a politically independent, geographically secure Ukrainian state. Were Kyiv to become a Russian vassal, history teaches that it would only be a matter of time before the Kremlin set its sights on attacking another border state. The Russian bear is by nature an aggressive beast.

Co-existing with China: Beijing is clearly Washington’s primary, mid to long-term global competitor. This relationship will consequently require an enduring strategy to ensure that the Middle Kingdom remains anchored in the current international system, not a new geopolitical pole for an alternative, autocratic system.

There is no sugar coating the difficulty of this charge as areas of disputation abound. From intensifying trade wars to China’s ever-enlarging nine-dash line claims in the South China Sea to the tense standoff over Taiwan to growing Chinese influence in the Global South, Trump 2.0 will have its hands full. Relations with Beijing will, therefore, require a concerted, joint effort with America’s allies in Europe and Asia to temper China’s worst instincts on the global stage.

Stability in the Middle East: As oxymoronic as that title sounds, Trump enters office at a particularly auspicious time to affect substantive change in this long-bloodied region. As a result of the endless violence since October of 2023, all sides are nearing the point of war exhaustion. Furthermore, with the grave power degradation of Hezbollah, the veritable end of Hamas as a political movement, and the meteoric collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran is at its weakest in recent memory. There is, therefore, a golden opportunity for the new administration to push for a substantive and verifiable follow-on nuclear accord with Tehran in exchange for loosening of the sanctions regime. This will require a flexible combination of threats and inducements, backed up by serious, behind the scenes diplomacy.

Another possible scenario, a wider war with Iran that sees the Mullahs in Tehran sprint to the nuclear finish line would be a disaster for the Middle East, encouraging other regional powers – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey – to match Iran’s atomic arsenal. When it comes to nuclear weapons in the Middle East, more is not better.

The above list is by no means exhaustive as there are other simmering international concerns – sensible immigration reform, instability in resource-rich, sub-Saharan Africa, a rogue regime in North Korea, the rise of extreme politics – particularly in Europe, and climate change-induced disasters (see Los Angeles) – that will test the new U.S. president.

Let’s hope that his national security team is focused more on these issues than what to call the Gulf of Mexico.

Note: This article was published on 16 January by both the Monadnock Ledger-Transcript and the Brattleboro Reformer.